Ensaios estatísticos sobre a agricultura orgânica no Sul do Brasil

Abstract

This study explores organic agriculture in Southern Brazil, utilizing data from the Agricultural Census of IBGE and the National Register of Organic Producers (CNPO). The study delves into descriptive and spatial approaches to understand the dynamics and challenges faced by organic producers in this region, focusing on the period of 2017. The first article analyzes the socioeconomic and spatial determinants of organic agriculture in Southern Brazil, aiming to investigate the key characteristics influencing the spatial allocation of properties self-declared as organic producers in Southern Brazil. Using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method and based on data from the IBGE Agricultural Censuses, the study identifies patterns of geographical distribution of organic properties. "Low-Low" clusters were identified across much of Rio Grande do Sul, except in the coastal region where a "High-High" cluster was observed. Variables such as the proportion of establishments with organic producers, technical guidance, pesticide use, machinery, and financing showed statistical significance, demonstrating their effect on the spatial allocation of self-declared organic producers according to the 2017 IBGE Census. The second article examines the socioeconomic and spatial determinants of the presence of organic agriculture, aiming to complement the investigations of the first article by focusing on the spatial distribution of organic producers. This article expands the analysis of the first by employing the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, an innovative approach in organic agriculture research that allows for detailed analysis of local variations of specific variables, applied to data from the 2017 Agricultural Census and CNPO. This model is particularly useful for capturing the complexity and spatial variability of organic agriculture adoption, highlighting the importance of considering local specificities in public policies and agricultural development. The results revealed significant geographical variability in organic agriculture adoption rates, indicating an uneven distribution of organic and certified producers throughout the Southern region. Marked differences were observed between municipalities, with some exhibiting high proportions of self-declared and certified organic establishments, while others showed minimal adherence to these practices. Local factors, including socioeconomic, educational, and infrastructural aspects, played crucial roles in determining the spatial distribution of organic agriculture. It was concluded that GWR is a valuable tool for capturing the complexity and spatial variability in the adoption of organic agriculture, reinforcing the need for policy approaches and agricultural development that consider local specificities. The third article provides a descriptive and quantitative overview of the certification of organic producers in Paraná, using CNPO data from 2016 to 2023. A quantitative and descriptive approach was employed, utilizing CNPO data with statistical and georeferencing techniques to map the evolution of organic certifications. The results demonstrated a significant increase in certifications, with notable variations between municipalities, indicating a strengthening of sustainable agricultural practices. The investigation focused on two main areas: identifying municipalities with the highest growth in certificate issuance over time and those that consistently maintained a high number of certificates, demonstrating sustained strength in the sector. Notable examples include the municipalities of Tijucas do Sul, which recorded a significant increase of 194 certificates from 2016 to 2023, as well as Curitiba and Lapa, which almost always maintained over 200 certificates. The results also highlighted seasonal variations in certificate issuance, with some months showing significant peaks, possibly related to specific or strategic periods for obtaining certifications by producers. This indicates the complexity and challenges faced by the sector, including regulatory issues and market variations. The findings of this thesis underscore the complexity and spatial variability in the adoption of organic agriculture in Southern Brazil, emphasizing the importance of policy and agricultural development approaches that take local specificity into account. Public policies are crucial for promoting and sustaining organic practices, while local socioeconomic and infrastructural factors influence the spatial distribution of producers. By mapping the sector's growth, this study provides insights for formulating strategies to support organic agriculture and highlights the challenges related to data availability, having analyzed different databases that vary in the information they provide.