Cenários prospectivos para o setor de eventos de Foz do Iguaçu no contexto da pandemia covid-19

Abstract

The events industry is understood to be an important component of developing tourism, able of increasing economic potential in many locations around the world. However, since March 2020, the tourism and events segments have been suffering great impact from the COVID-19 Pandemic because of the nature of their activities, which essentially involve the agglomeration and travel of people. The actual scenario represents a great challenge for event management that is concerned with the development of activities from the pandemic. In this context, this study aimed at prospecting the future scenarios for the events industry of the Iguaçu tourist destination, considered before the pandemic as one of the main Brazilian destinations for national and international events. Therefore, the methodological procedures that grounded the scenario building structure were based on an approach that integrates the Delphi forecasting methods, Global Business Network (GBN) and Cross Impact Analysis (CIA). In addition, a strategic forecasting software program (MICMAC) was applied in the scenario building phase. Three distinct scenarios based on the information obtained through the experts were developed by identifying the main driving forces: Ascension Return, Economic Stagnation, and Digital Transformation. The results allowed identifying within the events industry, that the future should be impacted mainly by the unfolding of the COVID-19 Pandemic, improvement of air transportation and the use of technological innovation in the area. In any case, the sector will face major challenges in the coming years, mainly due to the need to improve the airline network and the adoption of new technologies arising from the digital transformation, intensified from the pandemic period. This study provides academic and professional contributions, especially for its focus on the city of Foz do Iguaçu-PR, whose economy based on the tourism and events sectors was negatively impacted by the pandemic of COVID-19.