Racionalidade limitada: uso do índice de preços como ferramenta para mitigar as limitações cognitivas no processo decisório de investimentos na cadeia produtiva da tilápia

Abstract

This thesis aims to present elements that contribute to the development of a price index for tilapia farming in Western Paraná, as well as to identify the rationality of economic agents within the tilapia production chain. The premise is that a general price index can serve as a useful tool for economic agents in the tilapia production chain, enabling more rational and less irrational decision-making. To address the objectives of this thesis, the structure was organized into three articles, corresponding to Chapters 2, 3, and 4. Article 1 explores the theoretical framework of behavioral economics in search of foundations that justify the development of a price index for the tilapia production chain. During this analysis, prospect theory emerged, presenting elements that support the decision-making process of economic agents when it involves gains and losses. A price index can serve as a tool to make investment decisions more accurate, thereby reducing information asymmetry. Article 2, through a questionnaire, aimed to identify the rationality of economic agents in the tilapia production chain regarding decisionmaking in gain and loss scenarios. The responses revealed that, in most cases, agents exhibit bounded rationality, showing risk aversion in gain situations and risk-seeking behavior in loss scenarios. These findings indicate that developing a price index can serve as a reference for investment decision-making, significantly contributing to the decision-making process. Finally, in Article 3, the Tilapia Farming Price Index of Western Paraná (IPTOP) was developed, calculated based on price variations within the tilapia production chain, which includes the categories of earthmoving, processing plants and warehouses, fingerling suppliers, feed suppliers, and equipment manufacturers. As a result, an IPTOP of 1.0841 was obtained, indicating an 8.41% price variation over the analyzed period, from August 2022 to August 2023. This index was compared with the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for the same period, which stood at 4.61%. The IPTOP, designed to assist economic agents in the tilapia production chain with investment decision-making in scenarios of risk and uncertainty, presents a significant difference from the IPCA. This suggests that the tilapia market in Western Paraná is expanding and favorable for new investments in the sector.