As relações econômicas e ambientais entre Brasil e China no ano de 2020

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the economic and environmental relations between Brazil and China in the year 2020, with special attention to virtual water trade, domestic value added (DVA) generation, and job creation. To achieve this, the input-output analysis methodology was used, based on data from the OECD and GLORIA. The study reveals that China is Brazil’s main trading partner, responsible for the largest share of jobs generated from Brazilian exports. In 2020, trade relations with China sustained approximately 4.5 million jobs in Brazil, predominantly in medium- and low-skilled occupations, reflecting the profile of national exports, which are centered on agricultural and mineral commodities. The interruption of exports to China would result in a significant reduction in national employment, especially in the agricultural and low value-added industrial sectors. Regarding domestic value added, the research shows that China is the partner whose absence would most negatively impact the Brazilian economy. The suspension of exports to the Chinese market would lead to a 4.26% drop in Brazil’s DVA, a percentage higher than that observed for other relevant partners such as the United States and the European Union. Although Brazilian exports to China are mostly composed of low value-added products, such as soybeans, beef, and iron ore, the high volume of these transactions gives China a central role in Brazil’s international trade. Additionally, the analysis reveals that despite the significant volume of exports, the economic efficiency of water use in trade with China is relatively low: for every million cubic meters of virtual water exported, Brazil generates only US$18.32 million in value added, a figure lower than that recorded in relations with the United States, the European Union, and Argentina. This result reinforces the need for public policies aimed at diversifying the export portfolio and encouraging value aggregation, in order to enhance the economic benefits of international trade. In summary, the research highlights that the trade relationship with China is strategic for Brazil not only because of the export volume, but mainly due to its direct impact on employment and domestic value added. The study concludes that maintaining and improving this partnership contributes to Brazil’s economic development, while recommending the adoption of strategies that promote greater efficiency and sustainability in bilateral relations.