Pobreza no Brasil: proporção, intensidade e fatores determinantes nas Unidades da Federação entre 2012 e 2023

Abstract

The evolution of poverty in Brazil has been marked by periods of progress and setbacks, highlighting that its eradication remains a significant challenge for the country. In this context, this research aimed to analyze the dynamics of poverty in Brazil between 2012 and 2023, focusing on the Federative Units, using income as the criterion for defining and measuring poverty. An individual was considered poor if their per capita household income was below half (1/2) the minimum wage. To achieve this, the Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (FGT) index was employed to estimate the incidence and intensity of poverty, along with an econometric panel data model to identify the determining factors of the phenomenon. Analyses were conducted based on microdata from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua). The main results revealed a strong regional component of poverty in Brazil, being higher in the Federative Units of the North and Northeast regions. Maranhão stood out as the state with the highest poverty rate throughout the period, also presenting the lowest per capita household income in the country, more than 50% below the national average. In contrast, Santa Catarina maintained the lowest poverty indicators, recording the least income inequality among the Federative Units and a per capita household income above the national average during the entire analyzed period. Between 2012 and 2023, poverty indicators fluctuated significantly, with 2021 standing out as the most critical year, when all Federative Units simultaneously recorded an increase in poverty. However, these fluctuations did not occur homogeneously among the states, reflecting distinct regional socioeconomic dynamics. The estimated econometric model, with the proportion of poor individuals as the dependent variable, revealed that the years of schooling of the adult population, the urbanization rate, the proportion of white individuals, and the proportion of the employed population were statistically significant and negatively related to poverty, indicating that increases in these factors are associated with its reduction. Notably, there is a strong relationship between the proportion of the employed population and the reduction of poverty, reinforcing the significant impact of labor market integration on improving the population's living conditions. The findings confirmed the research hypothesis, demonstrating that differences in poverty levels among the Federative Units during the analyzed period were influenced by variations in educational attainment, labor market participation, and income inequality. These variables were decisive in shaping the magnitude of regional poverty fluctuations. The analysis showed that states with higher educational levels, greater labor market inclusion, lower income inequality, and higher or steadily increasing per capita household incomes exhibited lower poverty rates and more significant progress in poverty reduction.