Gestão Fiscal e Bem-Estar Social: uma análise sob a ótica do federalismo fiscal e dos ciclos políticos nos governos locais

Abstract

The current research has the objective of analysing which are the determinants of the management of city tax and social well-being under the optic of the theory of fiscal federalism and the theory of political cycles. It should be noted, that joint analysis of different factors of the theory of fiscal federalism and political cycles, in the analysis of the pillars of fiscal management and the destination of resources for the promotion of social well-being, are factors which differentiate and justify the elaboration of the current study. on the basis of the studies on the subject, it was expected that the variables of fiscal federalism and political cycles would influentiate the representative variables on the management of city tax and social well-being (hypotheses H2 and H3), with a negative sign expected for the financial condition variables and degree of dependency and positive, for the remaining variables, equally to the H1 hypothesis, which anticipated that the variables of social well-being and management of city tax have a relation and the H4 hypothesis, which expected different averages on the variables according to the population size of the public entities. In order to achieve the proposed objectives and test the hypotheses, the research is characterized as descriptive, documentary, and quantitative, provided with data from the cities of the state of Paraná in the period between 2013 and 2018, utilizing as an analysis procediment an econometric model for the panel data and complementary, correlation analysis and the ANOVA Test for average differences. The research results suggest the existence of a relation between the variables of management of city tax and social well-being, given that the main findings are the negative relations, for the investment expenses (capital expenditure) and the remaining variables(current expenditures) and the relation to expenses with personal are positive, when compared to the other current variables. When it comes to the results of the regressions, it was possible to observe some tendencies, such as the negative relation of the indicators of the degree of dependency, with the expense indexes on social areas and positive for the fiscal management indexes, meanwhile the representative variables of the necessities of resources presented variations according to each one of the variables. As the main contributions of the study, are highlighted the ones for practical usage on the public administration, since it allows the administrators to comprehend the best way to allocate the resources for the areas of social interest, with the maintenance of good fiscal management indexes, alongside contributing to the organizations of external control and society, since it allows the analysis of the factors which impacted the results of the administration. In order to continue the research, it is suggested giving further focus to the discussions about specific subjects, such as the health and/or educational areas, contemplating different contexts and variables.