Comparação Multi-Temporal da Temperatura da Superfície Terrestre em Cascavel - PR (2005–2025)

Abstract

The accelerated urban growth of the municipality of Cascavel, Paraná State, Brazil, over recent decades has promoted significant changes in land cover and land use, characterized by the expansion of impervious surfaces and the reduction of vegetation cover. These processes have contributed to increased land surface temperatures and the intensification of urban thermal discomfort. Combined with global climate change, such dynamics increase public health risks and compromise population quality of life, posing a major challenge for local urban and environmental planning. In this context, the objective of this study was to analyze and compare the punctual interannual dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) in the municipality of Cascavel–PR between 2005 and 2025, and its relationship with urban expansion, vegetation cover variation, and geoenvironmental factors. The research was based on the use of geotechnologies and orbital remote sensing techniques, employing Landsat satellite imagery to map land surface temperature (LST), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and hypsometry. Statistical and spatial analyses were conducted using the R computing environment. As an original methodological contribution, the study proposed the use of climatic proxies to address the lack of complete historical meteorological time series, through the development of the Human Thermal Comfort Proxy Index (CTH-proxy). This index integrates surface thermal amplitude and monthly precipitation, enabling a retrospective analysis of urban thermal comfort, unprecedented for the municipality. The results indicated a consistent pattern of surface warming in Cascavel–PR, associated with urban expansion and the reduction of vegetation cover. In 2005, thermal stress exhibited a punctual character, whereas in 2015 high variability was observed, influenced by the occurrence of a strong El Niño event. In 2025, greater temporal persistence of thermal stress was identified, indicating a worsening of conditions associated with human thermal comfort. It is concluded that the integration of remote sensing data, geoenvironmental variables, and climatic proxies constitutes a robust approach for analyzing urban thermal comfort, providing relevant technical support for urban planning, urban forestry management, and climate change adaptation strategies in growing medium-sized cities.