Modelagem da redução na taxa de crescimento do consumo de energia elétrica com uso de técnicas de séries temporais interrompidas

Abstract

Electricity consumption in Brazil reflects economic, social, and technological transformations, making it essential to understand its changes in order to support public policies and sectoral planning. This study combines segmented regression and interrupted time series methods applied to total, regional, and sectoral consumption, seeking to capture structural shifts and longterm trends. Monitoring the reduction in the growth rate of electricity consumption is crucial for understanding the structural transformations of the energy sector. The proposed methodology has a general scope and can be replicated in different contexts; in this study, it was applied to the Brazilian case, given the scarcity of analyses focused on the long-term dynamics of energy consumption in the country. The results indicate the strong influence of past consumption on future demand and the relevance of external variables in explaining gradual adjustments in consumption patterns. Three main phases were identified: the reduction in industrial consumption associated with deindustrialization, the sharp decline in residential and commercial use during the 2014–2016 economic crisis, and the ongoing impacts of energy efficiency measures and the expansion of distributed solar generation, which have contributed to moderating demand growth. The analysis highlights the usefulness of flexible and replicable approaches to understanding dynamic patterns of energy use, with potential application in different contexts and regions.