Endividamento público e ciclos políticos: uma análise dos municípios do Paraná

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of electoral cycles on the indebtedness of municipalities in the state of Paraná, in light of the Theory of Political Business Cycles. To this end, the research was structured in three stages. In the first, a bibliometric and sociometric study of a quantitative nature was conducted to map the development of scientific production related to the topic, identify the main authors, journals, and collaboration networks, and understand the trends in the literature. The research revealed a fragmentation of collaboration networks, with many authors and institutions disconnected, which limits knowledge exchange and the dissemination of academic discussions. The theoretical contributions include a detailed overview of the topic, identifying the main studies; in practical terms, the mapping of authors and journals helps identify potential research partnerships; and socially, the study promotes broader access to knowledge and encourages diverse collaborations between institutions from different countries. In the second stage, a theoretical, qualitative, and exploratory literature review was carried out, focusing on the conceptual construction of the indebtedness variable and its relationship with political aspects, based on contributions from national and international literature. It is concluded that public indebtedness is often used as a political instrument, and its management is conditioned by various political factors, such as reelection, ideological affiliation, and other elements. The study makes a theoretical contribution by critically gathering and synthesizing key concepts on political cycles and public debt, offering a foundation for future research. In practical terms, it highlights relevant variables and methodologies for analyzing the political influence on debt management. Socially, it reinforces the importance of fiscal responsibility and warns about the impacts of opportunistic practices on the quality of public services, especially in less consolidated contexts. Finally, in the third stage, a quantitative empirical analysis was conducted using panel data from the 399 municipalities of Paraná between 2013 and 2020, considering political variables such as reelection eligibility, partisan alignment with the state government, and the ideological orientation of mayors. The empirical results, with statistical significance, show that municipal indebtedness increases in pre-election years, especially among mayors eligible for reelection. Mayors politically aligned with the state government also exhibited significantly higher levels of indebtedness during the election year. Additionally, it was found that mayors from left-wing parties tend to incur less debt, while those from right-wing parties did not present statistically significant variations. These findings reinforce the presence of opportunistic political-budgetary cycles at the municipal level in the state of Paraná and represent the main contribution of this study. The study offers theoretical contributions by deepening the understanding of the effects of electoral budget cycles at the subnational level. As a practical contribution, the findings provide insights to improve fiscal planning and guide public managers’ attention during pre- and post-election periods, when there is a greater tendency to increase indebtedness. Socially, the results reinforce the importance of citizen participation and fiscal transparency by showing that increased indebtedness during electoral periods may compromise fiscal sustainability and the provision of essential public services.