Efeitos locais do aquecimento global: tendências de índices de mudanças climáticas nas regiões Oeste e Sudoeste do Paraná

Abstract

Climate change is being widely debated worldwide, due to evidence that the current climate dynamics cannot be answered by natural elements alone, with human activity being held responsible for the increase in temperature that triggers climate change. The effects of climate change are felt on a meso- and microclimatic scale, making studies on trends in climate patterns in different parts of the world necessary. In addition, they are necessary for governments and entities seeking to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially for the people most vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, this study sought to identify whether there is a regional pattern of trend evolution in the West and Southwest regions of Paraná in the period 1977-2018; in addition, it sought to identify the spatial patterns of positive or negative trends for different climate change detection indices and to assess whether there is a differentiation in the effects of global warming in the two climate types (transition climate in the West region and subtropical climate in the Southwest region). For this purpose, data from updates from the Environmental Dynamics Studies Laboratory (LEDA) were used, constituting a set of 26 meteorological stations from the IDR, SIMEPAR and INMET institutes for the period from 1977 to 2018. Then, the linear trend over time was calculated to identify the increase and/or reduction of extreme events in the study area, and from this, specialization in the free software QGis was carried out to identify the presence (or not) of a regional pattern of climate change in extreme rainfall indices. The results found indicated an increase in the annual total rainfall based on the PRCPTOT index. The CDD and CWD indices indicated consecutive days without an increase, indicating that the occurrence occurs more frequently in fewer days and, also, that dry periods have increased. The other indices used indicated an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in the study area. This indicates that the West and Southwest regions of Paraná present extreme events, reducing local effects of global climate change.