Simulação de Cenários em Recursos Humanos: um estudo em cooperativa agroindustrial

Abstract

Agroindustrial cooperatives are complex organizations that receive strong influences from national economic, political, technological, and social systems. The health crisis resulting from the new coronavirus pandemic has generated greater complexity due to the loss of employees, difficulty in new hires, and work models that had never been practiced until then, directly affecting the practices adopted by Human Resource Management (HRM) in such organizations. Planning with scenario simulation presents an efficient prevention strategy for future events, supporting decision-making and favoring assertiveness in solving problems in unexpected scenarios. This study aimed to simulate possible scenarios for the human resources area in a Brazilian agroindustrial cooperative with thousands of employees, located in the state of Paraná, operating in Mato Grosso do Sul and Santa Catarina, through the use of the Rojo Model (2005) scenario simulation. The study methodology is qualitative, exploratory, and characterized as a case study. The model has 5 strategically defined steps: application of the Delphi method, competitive intelligence, scenario simulation, strategy formulation, and action plan. As proposed by the model, we started with the Delphi method to identify critical variables, through a panel of four experts, with the application of semi-structured interviews. The critical variables identified were used as parameters for the other stages of the model. With this, three scenarios were simulated, each with possible strategies and carefully aligned goals, signaling possible actions to be carried out in scenarios of optimism, pessimism, and moderation. As proposed, the objective of this study was achieved through the simulation of scenarios specifically for the area of human resources. The results show that the applicability of the Rojo Model (2005) goes beyond its use in the strategic planning of organizations, being equally effective in planning by the department through a critical analysis that provides preparation for unexpected situations.