Rentabilidade e risco na produção de suínos para abate no sistema por ciclo completo: uma aplicação da simulação de Monte Carlo para os estados da região sul do Brasil

Abstract

The production of pigs for slaughter has been characterized as an important activity of Brazilian agribusiness. Like other productive activities, swine farming is subject to several risks and economic risk, in the aspect of the probability of obtaining profit or loss, tends to be preponderant in the decision to produce or not. This research had as main objective to examine the profitability and risk of the production of pigs for slaughtering in the system by Complete Cycle in the main producing region of the country. For this, secondary data were used for the three states of the southern region of Brazil: Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, by the variables: price paid to the producer per kilogram of live pig, from January 2012 to April 2017 and fixed and variable costs per kilogram, from January 2011 to April 2017. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to obtain the desired results. In general, the main results show that swine farmers in the three states that adopt the Full Cycle system show low levels of profitability and negative net income risk. The swine farmers of Paraná presented the best situation, with a higher level of profitability compared to the producers of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.