Capacidade decisória policial em ambientes vuca: um estudo sob a ótica dos microfundamentos da estratégia

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze which individual (cognitive-affective processes), organizational, and contextual factors are associated with the quality of police decision-making under stress in environments characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). Police work in these high-pressure scenarios demands rapid, accurate, and institutionally legitimized decisions, making stress a central factor in officers’ field performance. The theoretical framework of the proposed model was developed based on a Systematic Literature Review (SLR), conducted according to the PRISMA protocol using the Web of Science database, resulting in the selection and analysis of 57 scientific studies that grounded the proposed integrative model. The findings were organized into three main categories: Category 1: Individual Processes; Category 2: Training, Technologies, and Strategies; and Category 3: Organizational and Contextual Factors. The study is grounded in the assumptions of Cognitive Appraisal Theory (Folkman & Lazarus, 1980) and the Microfoundations of Strategy (Felin et al., 2012), enabling the empirical testing of relationships among the investigated variables. The research adopts a quantitative approach, using a structured online questionnaire administered to police officers who have experienced critical incidents. A Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) was conducted to assess the adequacy of the instrument and to adjust the scales to the needs of the research context. To test the proposed hypotheses, a multiple linear regression model was estimated. The results are expected to contribute to the validation of a robust theoretical model, providing practical inputs for the development of institutional policies, training programs, and stress-management strategies applicable to the public security context.