Crédito rural e sustentabilidade no semiárido baiano: uma análise em dois estágios

Abstract

Sustainability, seen as a major challenge for humanity in the 21st century, has the mission of promoting economic growth with the least possible environmental impact, ensuring that future generations also have access to the same resources. Which is not an easy task, as sustainability is a continuous, complex and multidimensional process. But it is essential in view of the intensification of the effects of climate change, which have generated major economic, social, human, cultural and environmental losses. In this scenario, the agricultural sector plays a fundamental role, as it is a strategic sector for achieving some of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially SDGs 1, 2 and 10 and, indirectly, SDGs 8, 13 and 15. Since the Netherlands Conference on Agriculture and Environment, convened by FAO in 1991, sustainable agriculture and rural development have become priorities on the global sustainability agenda. But, for agricultural production to be truly sustainable, investments in technologies and new modern production techniques are necessary. A tool capable of assisting rural producers in this process is the rural credit policy, considered strategic to promote resilient and sustainable agriculture. By alleviating the financial constraints of rural producers, it enables the purchase of agricultural inputs, machinery and equipment and technological resources that allow a more efficient combination of resources. In this pursuit of promoting sustainability, composite indices have gained prominence and have come to be widely used worldwide, as instruments for measuring the level of sustainability and guiding the formulation of public policies. Thus, this study aims to develop a composite rural sustainability index for the municipalities of the semi-arid region of Bahia, and to verify whether there is a significant association between rural credit and the sustainability index. To this end, a two-stage procedure was adopted. In the first stage, the rural sustainability index of the municipalities of the semi-arid region of Bahia was calculated through two weighting methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BOD) model formulated from a Directional Distance Function (DDF). In the second stage, censored data models were used, more specifically, Tobit and Linear Regression to analyze the effect of exogenous factors on the level of rural sustainability of the municipalities of the semi-arid region of Bahia. The results obtained by the PCA method indicate a low level of rural sustainability in the semi-arid region of Bahia. The DEA-BOD model based on a directional distance function showed that the municipalities operate, on average, at 78.8% of the sustainability frontier, evidencing that the regional performance is significantly below the level achieved by the reference municipalities. In addition, a positive and significant effect of rural credit on the sustainability index was verified, confirming its relevance as an instrument for strengthening sustainable development in the semi-arid region of Bahia. The results reinforce the importance of rural credit as a strategic public policy especially for contexts of great socioeconomic vulnerability and adverse climatic conditions. In these locations the rural credit policy can enable investments in adapted technologies, sustainable management of natural resources, productive diversification and increased resilience of agricultural activities. Thus, it would be important to expand credit policies in the region, in order to boost the performance of municipalities in terms of sustainability. This finding contrasts with evidence observed in other regional contexts, such as the Legal Amazon and the Cerrado, where studies indicate that rural credit, the intensification of agricultural activity, the expansion of transport infrastructure and population dynamics have been associated with the advance of deforestation and environmental degradation. In the case of the semi-arid region of Bahia, however, no negative relationship was observed between rural credit and sustainable performance, suggesting that, in this specific context, credit may play an inducing role of more sustainable practices, instead of acting as a vector of environmental pressure.