Substituição de exportação da agricultura pelo processamento interno de alimentos: uma abordagem insumo-produto

Abstract

This dissertation examined the potential for stimulating economic growth of an export exchange of primary products from the agricultural sector for domestic processing in food products with higher added value. The Input-Output Matrix was used as a methodology because it is an integrated source of information on the transactions that occur between the sectors of the economy. The input-output analysis can be used to evaluate the effects on the economy as a whole, applying distinct shocks to specific sectors. The national input-output matrix for the year 2013, made available by the Regional and Urban Economy Nucleus of USP (NEREUS) with 68 sectors and 128 products and the interregional input-output system for the 27 federal states, measured by the Supply and Use Interregional Tables- SUIT Method, was used as a database, also for the year 2013. The results achieved show that the decrease in exports from the agricultural sector by 15.72% of the added value of other food products (average idle capacity of the industry in 2013) causes the gross value of production to decrease by R$ 5.29 billion. On the other hand, if what was left to export in agricultural commodities was applied in added value in the sector of other food products, supplying only the idle capacity of the processing industry, that is, without the need for new investments in manufacturing plants, it would have a gain of R$ 10.15 billion reais in gross value of production. Thus, there would be a positive result of R$4.86 billion in gross production value. The result is favorable in 22 of the 27 federation units, with exceptions for the states of Mato Grosso, Bahia, Rio Grande do Sul, Piauí and Tocantins, which presented a negative balance in the gross value of production for the scenario of substitution of exports of the agriculture sector in internal processing by the sector of other food products. The sum of the result in gross value of production of these states was R$ 328.86 million negative, a low value if compared to the state that presented the highest gross value of production that was São Paulo with R$ 2.45 billion in gross value of production. The scenario exposed in the work showed that the effect of replacing the export of primary agricultural products by internal processing in products with higher added value can be significant for economic growth, since it had a positive difference comparing the gross value of production.