Câmbio, crédito, juros e preços e seus impactos sobre o PIB da agropecuária no Brasil no período de 1995 a 2015

Abstract

Agriculture is a sector that has been presenting a significant importance for the Brazilian economy, since it has contributed significantly to the generation of employment and income to the country. However, the internal economic difficulties caused by high interest rates, exchange rate volatility, low volumes of credit in addition to the inflationary process and the lack of fiscal control seen in some periods, provided great challenges for Brazilian agriculture, mainly during the 1980s and 1990s. The performance of this sector has always been linked to a wide range of factors, such as investments in research, the adoption of new technologies, rural entrepreneurship and government support through some economic policies, such as fiscal, monetary / credit and exchange policies - in addition to the specific conditions of the sector itself. Before this scenario, in order to understand some of the macroeconomic factors that influenced the performance of Brazilian agriculture, the relations between rural credit, exchange rate, interest rate, price index received by rural producers and agriculture and livestock farming GDP between 1995 and 2015. In order to obtain empirical answers, a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model was used, which demonstrated that rural credit, the price index and the interest rate were the variables that influenced the performance of this sector during the analyzed period.