Metodologia para determinar uma resolução espacial para estudos de previsão espacial de demanda

Abstract

The spatial electric load forescating aims to determine the sapatial and temporal distribution of the growth of electricity demand in the service area of a distribution utility. This information is vital to support the process of decision making in planning the expansion and operation of dostribution networks in the medium and long term. Currently there are many methodologies that can perform spatial load forecasting, among these cell models hace been the most widely used in recent years. Moreover, these models need to be calibrated with information concerning the data in the studied region and one of these information is the spatial rsolution. This work presents a partitioning method, using a divisive algorithm, to crate homogeneous grid cells for cellular models used in saptial electric load forecasting, and thereby determine a spatial resolution that allowa for proper display and inference from the obtained at ffeder ordistribution transformer levels.