Dinâmicas locacionais dos municípios do estado do Tocantins entre 2001 e 2019

Abstract

Understanding the productive locational dynamics is a fundamental step to overcome intra-regional inequalities. In Tocantins state, Brazil, inequalities are prominent and structural. It is the newest of the federative units in Brazil, it is made up of 139 municipalities. The variation of the Tocantins GDP between 2002 and 2017 was 109% accumulated, showing great economic transformations and growth of its productive structure. In 2018, half of its municipalities held up to 5,000 inhabitants, in that same period, ten municipalities produced 61% of the state's GDP, reflecting uneven economic growth. Thus, the objective of this work was to analyze the determinants of the sectoral locational dynamics of the municipalities of Tocantins and to verify the association between locational dynamism and municipal development for the period from 2001 to 2019. To meet the general objective, locational and specialization indicators were applied; the shift-share method for analyzing the productive structure; and techniques of ESDA (exploratory spatial data analysis) to verify the patterns of association of the productive dynamics with the municipal development. The results showed that there was a significant increase in production in the primary sector and a spatial deconcentration of the production value in the state. The primary sector was the one that most gained relative share in the percentage of formal jobs and the secondary sector was the one that lost the most. The tertiary sector is the sector that employs the most and the most homogeneous in the state, with gains in the trade and service subsector, and a drop in the participation of public administration. Regarding the analysis of the decomposition of employment through the shift-share method, the results showed that it was the local (endogenous) factors that determined the productive growth of a large part of the sectors in Tocantins. It was also found that there was an increase in Specialized Competitive Advantages between 2010/2019 in the sectors of agriculture, industry, construction and commerce and services, and an increase in Non-Specialized Competitive Disadvantage in public administration, highlighting a fall in the dependence of the public sector on job creation among municipalities. In the application of the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), it was observed that the tertiary sectors were the ones that most presented a positive autocorrelation with the development indexes. In the bivariate analysis between the dynamics of the sectors and development, most Low-Low clusters were formed, mainly in civil construction, suggesting that municipalities that have a low dynamism in civil construction are surrounded by municipalities with low development. The highlighted outliers were in the public administration, mostly Low-High, which can infer that municipalities with a greater dynamism in the productive structure (non-specialized and without competitive advantages in the public sector), are close to municipalities with high development. It is concluded that the locational dynamics have changed and improved, and the determining factors of this dynamism were the local (endogenous) that acted in the reduction of intra-regional disparities in Tocantins.