Análise do impacto da corrupção na economia paranaense: uma abordagem com um modelo de insumo-produto inter-regional

Abstract

The aim of this research was to estimate, in the short term, the impact of corruption on the income level of the economy and well-being of the Brazilian and Paraná society, by means of the input-output inter-regional Paraná and the rest of Brazil model, in the year 2008. To achieve this objective, it was necessary to collect information from the Accountability Tribunals of the Union and the state of Paraná judgments, to formulate the fate of corruption hypothesis and the corruption repeal hypothesis, to calculate the impact of corruption on the Income level and welfare. To approximate the analysis of the reality, the hypothesis of evasion and/or hoarding of corruption money was also tested. The results show that, in the short term, corruption stimulates the economy product and consequently increases the income level and welfare on Paraná and Brazil society. However, corruption has negative effects only if the amount evaded and/or enshrined is, on average, more than 50% of the amount diverted from the public purse. The indicators-summary of the economic structure clarify that part of this result is explained by the least degree of interconnection between economic sectors tied to government spending. The evidence of the results indicates that tolerance to corruption may be related to the short-term stimulus that corruption provides to the economy, but that tolerance diminishes as society perceives when the levels of income and economic well-being it don't increase in the long run. Another evidence of the results of this research is that combating currency evasion can alleviate the negative effects of corruption on the Brazilian and Paraná economy, and that the fight against the crime of money laundering would reduce the distortions between the system of national accounts and the real product of the economy.