Determinantes do valor adicionado e emprego na indústria brasileira: desindustrialização e crescimento econômico

Abstract

This study seeks to make some contributions to the debate on Brazilian deindustrialization, with a specific look at the determinants of changes in value added and employment in industry, and the structural factors that influenced these variations and the value of industrial production, for the period of 1990 to 2014. In order to contribute empirically, we used an analysis from the VEC (Vector Errors Correction) econometric model and an application of the input-output analysis with the SDA (Structural Decomposition Analysis) technique, in addition to a vast empirical review and theoretical history, in order to connect the results to the historical facts verified. In general, a period with a vast literature, with great changes of a political character, changes in the conduct of economic policy and, above all, in the connection of the Brazilian productive structure with the rest of the world. A major limitation was the availability of continuous data sets for key variables of the desired analysis. In addition to the data, the great volume and speed of events of the period that generate a certain limitation in the empirical evidence, since it is not always possible to construct suitable models to capture such effects. The results showed that industrial employment is significantly determined by productivity and by remuneration and value added by three groups of variables, one of macroeconomic character, one of foreign trade and another one related to the variations of value added of the other sectors of the economy. It was also found that structural changes, mainly in the direct coefficients of employed and value-added personnel, in technology and in demand, were decisive for the structural variations in occupation and added volume of industry in the period..