O comércio internacional do açúcar: uma análise utilizando o método gravitacional

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is to explore the international sugar trade and its relevant variables, based on the gravity model. The trading values for sugar were extracted from the UN Comtrade database, which served as a basis of the dependent variable for the model. The independent variables applied to the model were the GDP, population, distance between the countries, prices, total area of the exporting country and the participation dummies of the exporting country inside a trade bloc (MERCOSUL, European Union, CARICOM, CAFTA-DR, APEC and BRIC). According to the Random Effects model with correction for heteroscedasticity, the gravitational method showed that the independent variables explain, in general, 53.41% of global sugar exports (2000-2012). However, the statistical significance was observed only for the coefficients of the distance variable and dummies included to capture the effect of global sugar exports to the member countries of CARICOM and CAFTA-DR. Even so, the sign of the distance variable was positive, indicating that a 1% increase in distance raises sugar exports to 1.42%. This result reflects an unexpected occurrence, according the gravitational method. Notwithstanding, the explanation of this relationship is the competitive advantages of countries exporting sugar, especially Brazil, whose market share is high and still holds comparative advantages in land availability, productivity of sugarcane, allied to favorable factors such as climate, strengthens the low cost in the production of sugar (the lowest in the world). Another aspect is the fact that the sugar presents difficulty for international trading, due to strong restrictions such as subsidies, quotas and other restrictions on imports. Statistical significance for the countries of CARICOM and CAFTA-DR blocks is justified by the strong tradition in sugarcane cultivation and sugar trade of the region.